Primary directions are a predictive technique used to determine the timing of future events. This study presents a statistical test of their validity in predicting violent death, using a sample from the AstroDataBank database with high-quality birth data (Rodden Rating AA). We evaluated the effectiveness of primary directions in the style of J.B. Morinus, focusing exclusively on a computer model of the most severe “fatal directions” explained below.
A case was considered positive if death occurred within a 180-day window of such a direction. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, we compared the observed coincidence rate against the null hypothesis of random distribution. Based on a pilot study, we set a target effect size of relative risk RR=1.15 (a 15% increase over chance) and powered the study accordingly with a final sample of 400 charts.
The analysis yielded a non-significant result (p-value = 0.11), providing no statistical evidence that violent death consistently coincides with the most severe primary directions as defined by our model. This null finding suggests that the relationship is more complex than a direct trigger.
While the results support the null hypothesis that no significant effect was detected, the direction of the result (p = .11) means that we cannot rule out the possibility of a minute effect. Such an effect might be enhanced when combined with additional techniques or assessed within a more comprehensive astrological framework.
The study establishes a methodological framework for future research, which could benefit from a more nuanced, expert-led analysis incorporating a broader set of astrological factors.