The Astrological Association Journal of Research in Astrology

Dean et al.’s Troubling Critique of Astrology. Science or Sceptical Advocacy?

by Paul Westran

Review: Understanding Astrology.
A critical review of a thousand empirical studies 1900-2020
by Dean, Mather, Nias & Smit (2022) AinO Publications

Geoffrey Dean et al. (Nias, Mather, Smit, with contributions from Heukelom and Kelly) publication revisits their characteristic blend of unoriginal and divisive scepticism toward astrology. Despite their review of over 1,000 experiments, they present no substantive discoveries. Instead, this tome must continue to serve as a guidebook for self-styled “guerrilla sceptics,” unimaginative materialist authors, and online astronomy educators -an audience described by Rob Hand as:

“…second-rate physicist-astronomers and people like that who are incompetent at doing what they are supposed to be doing, so they have at us instead of doing their own proper work! Half-baked hacks in their own fields. They are more interested in winning than in finding out the truth.” (Phillipson, 2024)
The ‘academic abandonment’ of astrology limits the Scope of Research

While 1,000 experiments might sound substantial, it is, in fact, a paltry amount given the 358 years since astrology was expelled from academia. For comparison, physics receives approximately 120 billion hours of research per century, a consequence of the patronage and institutional support that astrology lacks. If astrology had access to similar resources, it would undoubtedly be a far more developed field today.
Even if each of the 1,000 experiments took as long as my own, which is highly unlikely, 25,000 hours per experiment, the total research time for these 1,000 experiments would amount to just 25 million hours—only 0.02% of the time invested in physics research. Most of the studies in Dean et al.’s collection fall far short of this benchmark. The inevitable result is a stagnation of the field, where the same methodological errors are repeated, enabling Dean and his collaborators to easily critique the lack of progress without addressing the root cause: the academic abandonment of astrology.

Two diverging histories: Astrology and Medicine
Astrology’s academic rejection mirrors a historical pattern seen in medicine. For over a thousand years, from the death of Hypatia in 415 CE to the advent of vaccination in 1796 CE, western medicine was left to stagnate. During the 17th century, medicine relied on bloodletting, herbal remedies, the four humours and prayer—much like astrology, it lacked empirical rigour. However, medicine benefited from its association with anatomy, a tangible and technical field, which eventually allowed it to re-enter academia and advance.

Samuel Pepys was operated on successfully to remove a bladder stone ‘the size of a tennis ball’ in 1658, yet he can be found reporting on medical bloodletting 8 years later by the same surgeon.

It was only Edward Jenner’s discovery (or rediscovery) of vaccination that placed it on an upward trajectory and within a century we had anaesthetics and germ theory. The century that followed brought antiseptics, antibiotics, transplantation and gene therapy. As soon as we had germ theory, bloodletting ceased.
Astrology, by contrast, was severed from its technical counterpart since prehistoric times, astronomy, and left isolated without institutional support. Dean et al.’s critiques of astrology could easily be applied to medicine during its pre-academic revival. If medicine had been similarly dismissed, critics would also have had ample evidence to argue that it “doesn’t work.” Yet, as history shows, funding, resources and skilled researchers can transform even the most stagnant disciplines. Dean et al try to pretend that astrology has researchers to justify their dismissal of astrology.

A Departure from Traditional Research
My experiments mark a significant departure from traditional approaches to astrological research. I contend that the results of my studies shed light on why many previous experiments in this field have failed to yield extraordinary outcomes. This presents an excellent opportunity for critics to debunk my findings, as their validity challenges the entire foundation of prior astrological research—and by extension, much of the sceptical critique.

Their inability to debunk my findings would render many of their efforts invalid. In essence, their critiques crumble when juxtaposed with a model of astrology that accounts for dynamism. This revelation exposes a long-standing error, rooted in what I term “academic abandonment,” that allowed materialist and rationalist thinkers to prematurely dismiss astrology as pseudoscience. With this, the carefully constructed “house of straw” supporting claims of pseudoscience begins to visibly collapse.

The Critics Know My Results Were Successful
What’s particularly frustrating is that Dean et al. are fully aware of the success of my experiments. In good faith, I shared my data with them, which they reviewed over the course of a year. Rather than engaging constructively with the findings, they published selectively, aiming to cast doubt. Before doing so, however, they proposed several speculative and far-fetched scenarios to explain my results—scenarios so improbable that, were they true, I would indeed qualify for a Nobel Prize as Dean suggested:

Dean suggested that the effect may be because Venus cannot appear more than 48º from the Sun and that Mars has no such limits. They said that Sun-Venus is the only pair in the aspect connections where the aspect ‘in a natal chart’ is constrained to 48º or less, with average frequencies for 0º and 30º being several times those expected based on uniform planetary motion. They went on to say that in theory any constraint disappears for Sun-Venus aspects ‘between charts’. Nevertheless, they suggested Sun-Venus non-uniformity is so extreme that ‘enough may remain’ between charts to explain why Sun-Venus results are apparently significant and why (despite Mars retrogradation) Sun-Mars results are not.

Precis of correspondence PW and GD 2015
Dean’s critiques often focus on the size of the p-values and correlation coefficients, hoping to divert attention from the broader implications of significant results. However, p-values < 0.0001 in astrological studies are extraordinarily rare and deserve closer examination, not dismissal. Dean et al.’s reluctance to engage meaningfully with these findings reflects a broader unwillingness to address the possibility that astrology might hold unexplored validity.

Selective Sampling and Cherry-Picking
An example of methodological bias is their treatment of a sub-sample of 447 couples from my dataset of 1,300, which includes recorded birth times. Dean et al. selectively reduced the sample size to the smallest subset possible, thereby artificially diminishing the significance of certain findings. They then presented these diminished results as evidence of a “failure to replicate,” a gross misrepresentation of the actual outcomes.

Controls tell you how many hits you should expect, if you get significantly more hits than your control, then something is going on that needs a cogent explanation. However, Dean et al. ignore this standard when it contradicts their predetermined conclusions, undermining their credibility as scientific commentators.

Positive Feedback in Private but Evasive in Public
Ironically, Dean himself has praised my work on multiple occasions. His comments include:

  • “I am amazed at your industry.”
  • “The sheer amount of work you have done is staggering, even more so in view of your careful controls.”
  • “If astrologers generally were prepared to invest similarly in proper research, astrology today might rest on more substantial grounds.”

Despite these acknowledgments, Dean et al. continue to engage in obfuscation rather than constructive dialogue. Their reluctance to test my methods on their own family data, for example, underscores their unwillingness to entertain the possibility that my findings could withstand scrutiny.

A Call for Objectivity
Ultimately, the behaviour of Dean, Nias, Mather, and Smit reflects a broader issue within the sceptical community: an entrenched resistance to exploring astrology’s potential merits. This undermines the stated purpose of Understanding Astrology, which claims to identify promising areas for future research. Instead, the book functions as a “sledgehammer of obfuscation,” aimed at ensuring astrology remains unfunded and dismissed as pseudoscience. Based on what I know they know; they cannot be looking for promising areas of future research in astrology. I believe if they were to press this claim their sponsorship (or whomever it is that supports them) would fall away sharply.

If there were even a 0.02% chance that astrology is valid, Dean et al should focus on trying to develop it. Given its widespread cultural and economic impact – an industry worth hundreds of millions globally – astrology deserves the kind of rigorous, unbiased research that could unlock its potential applications. My experiments, with their replicable methodologies and significant results, offer a foundation for this exploration. It is time for the sceptical community to move beyond dismissal and engage with the data in good faith.

References
  Dean, Mather, Nias & Smit (2022) Understanding Astrology: A critical Review of a thousand empirical studies 1900 –2020: AinO Publications, Amsterdam
  Phillipson, Garry (2024) An interview with Robert Hand by Garry Phillipson https://www.skyscript.co.uk/rhand.html (retrieved 28 Nov 2024)
  Westran, Paul (2021) Astrology using progressed synastry in 1,300 public cases. A validation study. Correlation 33.2 pp. 13-34